Worked example · 100 MWdc existing PV · Pecos, Texas
Book 50 MW firm. Treat later MW as options.
Phase 1 is the underwritten case — grid-tied, cooling on 10% of tables, 50 MW of design-target 99.9% firm AI at the existing meter. Remaining PV stays generation. Leftover acres can take Phase 2 CSP steel on concrete rail. TES/ORC is Phase 2: the filing, not a second offtake. Phase 3 is a residual engine plant: it holds 50 MW if overnight service is delayed, or if a 54 MW yard will not permit. 111 MW is the interconnect coming off, not a bigger stack.
- Phase 1 — cooling
- +50 MW AI
Design-target 99.9% firm AI. Cooling on 10% of tables. Remaining PV stays generation. First commercial plant.
- Full platform — firm
- 111 MW AI
Option, not the base case. TES/ORC and CSP after Phase 1. Phase 3 is a residual plant — heat to electricity first, engines last.
- Peak / flexible
- 154 MW AI
Not firm. Extra AI hours when weather and storage allow. Book 111 MW firm; 154 MW is the upside.
Starting plant is 100 MWdc on the same land. Re-module keeps 100 MWdc of PV on a denser pad. Fifty acres convert to radiator tables. Leftover acres can take Phase 2 CSP steel. TES/ORC is Phase 2. Engines are last.
$150M / year — Phase 1 firm
50 MW of design-target 99.9% firm AI × $3M per MW-year planning value. A planning year, not a live meter.
$333M / year — 111 MW firm
Option on the same land. Same $3M rate. Not in the Phase 1 offtake.
154 MW peak / flexible
Not a second firm contract. Extra hours. Do not book at $3M per MW-year.
Phase 3 is a residual engine plant. TES/ORC runs first, so shaft is about 22 MW in summer and 28 MW in winter — not 54, and not 62.5 if the hall were chilled. That is the plant air, noise, and water will consider. It holds 50 MW when overnight service is delayed, or when a 54 MW engine yard would not permit. 111 MW firm is the interconnect coming off, and only if that residual plant still permits. Recovered heat, not a bigger stack. Not in the Phase 1 offtake.
Eight-day Pecos screen on the radiator campus: 50 MW firm served in the window, PV held at 100 MWdc, 50 acres reserved for tables. A full-year radiator-campus run is not yet the published design target. Prior whole-field radial year is not this plant. A 10 MWdc pilot — about 5 MW of firm IT — is the step that validates hot-day performance, parasitic demand, and ground-temperature behavior at commercial scale.